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Show Consequences
Imagine holding a crystal ball, revealing the future effects of your present actions. The Show Consequences pattern does just this, shining a light on the long-term repercussions of decisions, allowing for wiser, more mindful choices.
Key Takeaways
We're often blindsided by the present, overlooking how today's choices influence tomorrow.
The Show Consequences pattern:
Enables foresight into the future repercussions of current actions.
Promotes better decision-making, considering long-term outcomes.
Encourages a shift from immediate gratification to long-term rewards.
BEFORE
The Cost of Fast
Emma is selecting clothes from a fast fashion rack, oblivious to the environmental impact of each t-shirt or of the stores sustainable range.
AFTER
Reduced waste
Emma stops at a display, showing the clear contrasts between sustainable and non-sustainable clothing. Seeing the cleaner rivers, less waste; she chooses sustainable.
METHOD
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Start by pinpointing critical decisions or actions in your digital product, service or team project. Understand the long-term consequences of these decisions, whether they're positive, negative or from inaction. Consider which consequences might influence behaviour change most effectively.
Think about:
Which decisions/actions have significant consequences?
How can these consequences be made more tangible?
How can you quantify or visualise the consequences?
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Develop "what-if" scenarios that demonstrate the potential consequences of each decision. Craft stories that are relatable and emotionally resonant to engage your audience.
Reflect on:
How do different decisions affect the scenarios?
How can you make scenarios feel real and personal?
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Develop clear, engaging messaging that highlights the long-term consequences of the identified decisions/actions. Use language and visuals that evoke emotion and resonate with your audience to inspire behaviour change.
Ask yourself:
What emotions are associated with the consequences?
Can you use storytelling to enhance the message?
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Select the most suitable communication channels for your audience. Consider how and where they will encounter the consequences messaging. Experiment with different formats, like in-app notifications, emails or social media.
Reflect on:
Where does your audience spend most of their time?
Which channels allow for more effective storytelling?
Behavioural Insights at play
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Affective Forecasting:
Predicting future emotional responses to events, often inaccurately.
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Hyperbolic Discounting:
Preferring immediate rewards, often sidelining future well-being.
Affective Forecasting
Individuals predict their emotional reactions to future events. People often struggle with accurately forecasting their feelings and tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of their emotions. This mis-prediction can lead to poor decision-making, as individuals may not fully consider the long-term emotional consequences of their actions.
The Show Consequences pattern works by addressing the limitations of affective forecasting. By providing a clear picture of the future consequences of actions, it helps people better understand the emotional outcomes, enabling them to make more informed choices and inspiring behaviour change.
The Study:
Travelling during a pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic brought travel to a near halt. A group of European researchers sought to understand if affective forecasting, or mentally pre-experiencing a future event, would impact tourists' perceived risk of traveling during the pandemic and, in turn, their future travel decisions. To investigate, they conducted a study with 291 participants from the United States in May 2020.
STUDY DETAILS
Goal:
To determine if affective forecasting influences perceived risk, willingness to travel, and how soon they would travel once restrictions were lifted.
Approach:
Participants were assigned to one of two conditions:
1. Affective forecasting, where they engaged imagine a future holiday.
2. A control group, where there was no simulated affective forecasting.
OUTCOMES
Compared to the control, people who used affective forecasting had:
Hyperbolic discounting
Hyperbolic discounting is the psychological tendency to prefer immediate rewards over larger, future ones. This bias towards the present often overshadows the benefits of waiting, leading to impulsive choices that may not be in our best long-term interest.
The Show Consequences pattern works by combats this by vividly showing the consequences of our current decisions. Instead of merely offering abstract warnings, it crafts tangible scenarios that make distant repercussions feel immediate. This approach not only boosts awareness of the broader impact of our actions but also fosters better decision-making by emphasising long-term rewards over fleeting satisfaction. In bridging the gap between now and later, this pattern acts as a corrective lens, guiding us towards choices that resonate with both our present desires and future well-being..
The Study:
Saving for the future by seeing it first
In a world where retirement looms large and many individuals are ill-prepared, a dedicated team embarked on a distinctive mission. They asked, "Could seeing a digital version of our older selves influence our financial choices for the future?". Selecting 50 participants from various backgrounds, they initiated an experiment involving immersive virtual reality.
Hershfield, H. E., Goldstein, D. G., Sharpe, W. F., Fox, J., Yeykelis, L., Carstensen, L. L., & Bailenson, J. N. (2011). Increasing saving behavior through age-progressed renderings of the future self. J Mark Res, 48, S23-S37.
STUDY DETAILS
Goal:
Examine if interacting with age-progressed digital renderings of oneself can alter saving behaviours.
Approach:
Using virtual reality, participants were divided into two groups: one saw a digital representation of their current self, while the other interacted with an aged version of themselves. Subsequently, they made decisions about hypothetical retirement savings.
OUTCOMES
Participants who engaged with their future selves in virtual reality allocated over twice as much money for retirement.
Alternatives
Show how all the small actions contribute to their overall behaviour and goals, similar to a taking a step back to see the bigger picture.
DEBRIEF
3 Benefits:
Increased Awareness: Visual consequences prompt mindful action.
Shift to Long-term Focus: Immediate rewards loose allure against outlined future impacts.
Better Choices: Clear future views lead to smarter decisions.
3 Learnings:
Immediate vs. Future: We're naturally short-sighted; knowing consequences can help.
Personal Touch Matters: Customised outcomes drive the message deeper.
Correcting Emotional Predictions: Tangible visuals help refine our future feelings forecast.